Airshark says:
... I thought the specific wording was "
I know" ...
Yep. He is clearly convinced he knows stuff. If someone told him, that would probably be enough to convince him, though.
Airshark says:
... Maybe we should check on the others who were at the mayor's that night. ...
It was just you, the mayor, his wife and two children and the servant that let you in.
But most of the town probably knows about that meeting.
Airshark says:
... If the guys cousin was attacked at the the other baron's by Norbert's dog, that could mean he is affiliated with that baron too. ...
That only indicates that his cousin had access over there, and he has access over here, and that they have access to each other.
This is a rural community, it is suspicious that they have such good reports of activities way over on the other side of the valley or in the village.
You did not recognise any of the 'attackers', so you did not see them around here last night. That does not mean much, you did not explore the house and the staff much, and you did not get to see much of the attackers (Albert would be able to pick some of them out from a crowd, though), but you don't think they necessarily work here.
Airshark says:
... But why would he have easy access to
this house...? ...
Because the baron let them in?
Airshark says:
... Was all of this staged to frame us? ...
I don't know about 'all this' but there is an element of frame going on.
You have Decipher. Do you maybe want to roll to try to put things together with the facts your PC has? +INT or +WIS, with appropriate type of information based on which.
With Decipher, even on a 6- you won't fail to put something together, though it will be bad.
On a 7-9 you will get a suggestion of where to look next.
On a 10+ you will realise a concrete lead.
On a 12+ you will also realise something extra important.
You Character has been living this and may have picked up on or remember things the player has missed or forgotten... or the GM was not clear enough about.